Will Jelly Roll, Rod Wave or Charli XCX Top the Billboard 200?

The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated Oct. 26, we look at the most competitive race we’ve had on the albums chart in some time, as a pair of big new releases (and a just-retooled slightly older one) compete to claim the top spot.  

Jelly Roll, Beautifully Broken (Republic): If it feels impossible that Jelly Roll is only releasing his first album of 2024 this October, there’s a reason for that. The 2023 country breakout star has been absolutely ubiquitous throughout 2024, showing up everywhere from the Emmys to SNL to Congress (!!) to Twisters: The Album to new sets by Post Malone, Eminem, Falling in Reverse and Jessie Murph – as well as on plenty of his own new releases, including the Billboard Hot 100 Hits “I Am Not Okay” and “Liar.” But indeed, his LP follow-up to last year’s Whitsitt Chapel did not arrive until just last Friday (Oct. 11), in the form of Beautifully Broken. 

The new set features those two aforementioned hits, as well as guest appearances by rapper Wiz Khalifa, his “Lonely Road” collaborator mgk and singer-songwriter Isley Jubey. It’s available as a 14-track standard physical album and 22-track deluxe on digital download and streaming services – and if that’s not enough Jelly Roll in your life, Friday also saw the release of a 28-track super-deluxe edition subtitled (Pickin’ Up the Pieces), which features additional guest appearances from country stars ERNEST and Keith Urban, singer-rapper Russ and singer-songwriters Halsey and Skylar Grey.  

The 28-track length should certainly help the set’s numbers on streaming, where Jelly Roll usually performs fairly well for a country artist – but Beautifully Broken is expected to do most of its damage in sales. The album is available on his webstore on cassette, CD and vinyl, including gold and camo vinyl variants and a signed CD, as well as a fan pack featuring the signed CD along with a T-shirt or hoodie. There’s also a clear/gold splatter vinyl version exclusively available at indie stores, and a “silver nugget” variant exclusive to Amazon, while the digital deluxe and Pieces editions of the album are on sale on iTunes for $4.99 and $7.99, respectively. It all could add up to Jelly Roll’s first No. 1 album on the Billboard 200 – though in a competitive week, he’ll still need all the help he can get.  

Rod Wave, Last Lap (Alamo): One artist who already has several Billboard 200 No. 1s to his credit is Florida-born rapper Rod Wave. Despite keeping a low mainstream profile and never really scoring a crossover pop hit – with even hip-hop radio support remaining limited – Rod Wave has maintained consistent commercial success that most MCs can only dream of, with three straight No. 1 albums in three straight years this decade: 2021’s SoulFly, 2022’s Beautiful Mind and last year’s Nostalgia.  

Will Rod Wave be able to go 4-for-4? The stacked week could make it tough, but the album is off to another hot start on streaming. Like Future’s Mixtape Pluto a couple weeks ago, Last Lap’s presence on Spotify has been minimal – claiming just one spot on the current Daily Top Songs USA chart, with “25” ranking at No. 138 – but it has been absolutely dominant on Apple Music, occupying seven of the top 10 spots on the DSP’s real-time chart, including the entire top three (led by “25”). It will need to keep up that streaming performance to have a shot at the top spot, because as has also traditionally been the case with new Rod Wave releases, the album is not yet available for physical purchase – though it is also available digitally on iTunes for $4.99.  

Charli XCX, Brat (Atlantic): Though Brat Summer has come and gone – at least according to the weather outside – Charli XCX’s Brat album has remained a fixture on the Billboard 200, ranking at No. 14 this week in its 18th week on the chart. It should get a huge bump next week from the release of its new complementary remix edition: Brat and it’s completely different but also still brat, a star-studded 34 (or 35, including the recently released add-on “Spring Breakers” with Kesha) track affair which includes new versions of each of Brat’s original 15 cuts (as well as bonus track “Guess,” now with Billie Eilish), with each redo featuring one or multiple new big-name featured artists.  

The much-anticipated completely different version of Brat includes Charli’s previously released spins on “360” (with Robyn and Yung Lean), “Girl So Confusing” (with Lorde) “Von Dutch” (with A.G. Cook and Addison Rae) and “Talk Talk” (with Troye Sivan) as well as the aforementioned “Guess.” Some of the most attention-grabbing newly added names to the guest list include The 1975 (along with Jon Hopkins on “I Might Say Something Stupid”), Bon Iver (on “I Think About It All the Time”) and pop superstar Ariana Grande (on “Sympathy Is a Knife”). The completely different version of Brat, as with all other previously released permutations of Brat, will all be combined into one Brat for chart purposes. 

The set should rack up a good amount of curiosity streams for its new remixes and the big names on them, and it’s also available for purchase on Charli’s webstore in double-CD, double-cassette and triple-vinyl editions (and for $4.99 on iTunes), all of which also include the original Brat tracklist. But with the entirely new Jelly Roll and Rod Wave albums getting in the way this week, Charli will have her work cut out for her in passing the original No. 3 debut spot of Brat on the Billboard 200 even with the added help.

IN THE MIX 

GloRilla, Glorious (CMG/Interscope): Though many prematurely wrote off GloRilla when her 2023 did not maintain the momentum of her breakout 2022, her official debut album is now coming at the exact right time – hot off the momentum of 2024 hits “Yeah Glo!,” “Wanna Be” (with Megan Thee Stallion), “TGIF” and “Hollon.” The first two of those aren’t found on Glorious, but the latter two are, along with appearances from the aforementioned Stallion, Muni Long, Latto, Bossman Dlow, Sexyy Red and more big-name guests – with the Sexyy teamup “Whatchu Kno About Me” already looking on its way to breakout hit status. In many other weeks this autumn, Glorious’ strong streaming entrance (and webstore availability on signed CD, and in a digital download with an exclusive bonus track) would likely have it as a contender for the Billboard 200’s top debut – but in this stacked week, it may have to settle for top five.